Predictions for the World, new year 2020:

A crisis of legitimacy

By Agner Fog, January 2020

I have started the tradition of making a series of predictions for the World every ten years in order to test the predictive power of my theories of cultural selection^[1] and regality theory.^[2] The first set of predictions was published at new year 2000.^[3] One of my predictions at the turn of the millennium was that we would see more international terrorism, and that a media panic over terrorism would have significant political influence. This prediction came true to a degree that surprised even myself with the terror events of September 11, 2001 and the ensuing panic in the mass media. I also predicted riots in the Arab countries. This came true with the Arab spring in 2011. My predictions for China was that it would become an economic superpower and that it would see a parallel to the Soviet Glasnost or openness. The economic progress for China has indeed happened, but not the expected democratization. I repeated the same predictions for China in 2010.

At new year 2010, I also predicted social unrest, rebellion, and peaceful revolutions in many countries caused by the economic consequences of the kind of international economic competition that is commonly known as a race to the bottom.^[4] We have indeed seen public mass protests in many countries in the Middle East, South America, and some European countries. These protests have had little international media coverage and very limited success. Finally, I predicted that political power struggles would delay the implementation of efficient policies to mitigate climate change. This prediction has indeed come true, and we are still seeing rising CO₂ levels despite many promises of political action.

Let me explain the methods I use for making my predictions. First, I am trying to identify the most important selective factors or moving forces. These are predicted by extrapolating known trends or by other simple means. Then I am making predictions for social, cultural and political changes based on the effects that these factors are expected to have according to the theories of cultural selection,^[1] regality theory,^[2] and various theories of world systems, historical dynamics and cultural dynamics.

I will point out the following emerging issues and moving forces, or factors of change, as particularly significant:

Social media

People are increasingly getting news and political information from social media. These media are mostly unregulated and controlled by the laws of memetics. Echo chambers are forming when people prefer to read the messages they already agree with. This is likely to cause political polarization. The social media are vulnerable to surreptitious manipulation, as we have seen with the phenomena of fake news and trolling. Many people are easy to manipulate, as they are readily sharing fake news on their Facebook without fact checking. There have been various proposals for regulating fake news, hate speech, and terrorism propaganda on the social media. Such regulation, if implemented, implies an obvious risk of political censorship.

Traditional news media

The traditional news media, such as newspapers, radio, and television, are constrained by decreasing advertising revenues and fierce economic competition. The news messages are selected for their ability to attract a maximum of readers and listeners, rather than by any criteria of relevance, truth, or democratic performance.^[5] Many media are still relying on crime, disaster, fear, and moral panic for attracting readers and viewers. There are few non-commercial alternatives other than state-sponsored propaganda channels. The trivialization of the news media has the consequence that voters are easy to manipulate because they are poorly informed about important political issues.

Concentration of economic power

The gap between rich and poor is increasing. A growing fraction of the total wealth in the World is concentrated in the hands of a few mega-rich persons and corporations. Some of the largest economies in the World are corporations, rather than states. The concentration of wealth implies a concentration of power. Plutocracy is slowly undermining democracy.

Debt-based money system

Most of the money that is circulating in society originates from debt to private banks. The fractional reserve system allows banks to lend out more money that they have. This credit money, which has been created out of thin air, has to be paid back with interest. A paradoxical consequence of the accumulation of interest on credit money is that there is now three times as much debt in the world as there is money in circulation. There is no realistic chance that all this debt can ever be paid back. People as well as corporations, and even states, are going bankrupt as a consequence of the accumulating debt, even if they have never acted irresponsibly. The inherent instability of the money system has been unrecognized for centuries, even by most experts. These problems have finally come to light in the past decade. Today, there are organizations for monetary reform in many countries. However, the political support for a radical change in the money system is currently nowhere to be seen. We can expect recurrent economic crises and financial collapses in the future with notable regal consequences.

Climate change

The consequences of climate change are now becoming visible all over the world. Rising sea levels, floods, droughts, desertification, hurricanes, species extinctions, and other disasters are affecting the subsistence of millions of people. Climate refugees will become a serious problem in the future, and mitigation of the consequences of climate change will become an almost unsurmountable challenge. People will be dissatisfied with the insufficient action of politicians.

Resource conflicts

The demand for oil will decrease due to climate concerns. A lower demand for oil will mean less conflict in oil-rich countries. There will be conflicts over other resources, such as water, minerals, nuclear fuel, fertile land, and fishing rights, but these conflicts will be less violent than the conflicts over oil.

Changes in balance of power

The economic and political power of the USA is declining, while China and Russia are gaining more power. New alliances will be formed. New power contests will emerge as balances of power are changing and the stabilizing forces of US dominance are declining.

Proxy wars

Large-scale territorial wars have become rare nowadays, while civil wars are still common. Rivaling external powers are often supporting each their side in a civil war, though this support is often clandestine. Such a civil war may be considered a proxy war because it allows large external powers to compete for influence while they are avoiding bloodshed in their own territories. The number and scope of proxy wars is likely to decrease slowly because of decreasing support from the home population of the donor countries, as people realize what is going on and become aware of the imperialistic motives.

Economic warfare and information warfare

These kinds of power games are not new, but people are becoming more aware of what is going on, due to improved means of information sharing.

Refugees

Refugees fleeing from war, poverty, or climate change are a source of conflict in the receiving countries.

Mass protests

The past decade has seen large mass protests in many parts of the world. The grievances include lack of freedom and democracy (e.g. Arab spring), economic inequality (e.g. Occupy Wall Street) and climate change (e.g. Extinction Rebellion). These protests have had little success and limited international news coverage. We can expect such protest movements to increase in the future because the grievances have not been resolved. Protesters may use dramatic stunts in a fierce competition for attention.

 

Regal and kungic tendencies

Regality theory says that a culture will become more authoritarian and warlike if the population fears that their social group or nation is threatened by external enemies. Such a development is called regal. The opposite development, called kungic, is seen when there are no significant external threats or when internal conflicts between elite and commoners are more important than external conflicts with other tribes or nations. A kungic culture is egalitarian, peaceful and tolerant.^[2]

We are able to make predictions based on regality theory by looking at the factors of change listed above. Factors that are perceived as external threats will have a regal effect, while factors representing peace and security or a dominance of internal conflicts may have a kungic effect.

Regal forces

The most important regal influences are violent conflicts including civil wars, proxy wars and terrorism. The intensity of proxy wars is likely to decrease on a long timescale, while changes in the balance of powers will lead to new conflicts that last until a new balance of power is found.

A flow of refugees from conflict areas will continue to be a significant regal influence, especially because they are coming from regal areas. We will also see a flow of refugees due to poverty and climate change. The regal effect of the latter kind of refugees will be smaller because the areas they come from will be less regal in most cases.

Natural disasters, possibly caused by climate change, may have a moderate regal influence.

Media panics over crime, terrorism, etc. will continue to exert a strong regal influence. Political manipulators have successfully exaggerated the evilness of groups such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, and used them as perfect enemies. By perfect enemy, I mean a scapegoat that everybody can agree to hate. The existence of a perfect enemy can be used for justifying all kinds of military actions and suppression of populations. This strategy has proven so effective that we can expect more perfect enemies to be constructed in the coming decades. In my latest book, I have listed several historical examples where dangers and enemies have been fabricated, using various levels of deception.²

The prediction is that we will see more cases where the dangerousness of relatively insignificant groups is exaggerated through mass media campaigns. Such perfect enemies will be fought with dramatic military means, even though they could be overcome more effectively by other means, such as negotiations or by limiting their access to resources. The regal effect of such deceptive fearmongering may be reduced if a strong whistleblower protection scheme is implemented.

Kungic forces

There are also several kungic factors that we can expect to have an important influence in the future.

Existential security is improving in many Third World countries due to economic development. While there are still civil wars and proxy wars in the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, the scope of wars is decreasing and death tolls will be lower due to decreased public support for war, and because more conflicts will be fought by non-violent means such as economic warfare and information warfare.

We will see increased conflicts between commoners and elite in many parts of the world because of increased dissatisfaction with lack of freedom, poorly functioning democracy, economic inequality, plutocracy, and poor management of the climate crisis. The legitimacy of current institutions and power structures will be questioned, as discussed below, and we will see more mass protests all around the world.

 

A crisis of legitimacy

There is an increasing skepticism about the basic institutions and power structures of our society today. There is a growing criticism of the world system as well as the political and economic systems. This criticism can develop and spread due to improved access to independent information channels. The criticism applies to many different aspects of our social system, listed below.

Free market capitalism

There is decreasing trust in the belief that free market forces automatically lead to an efficient distribution of resources. The concentration of wealth at the top is undermining the belief in trickle-down economics. People are outraged to see that oil companies have effectively lobbied to sabotage climate negotiations and to prevent effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The leaders of oil companies are apparently willing to sacrifice the future of the entire planet to secure their own short-term economic gains. When people try to make sense of this absurd situation, they may conclude that there is no limit to the egoism that free market capitalism can foster. The legitimacy of the fundamental economic system is now being questioned, not only by fringe communists, but also by an increasing number of influencers.

Debt-based money system

The fractional reserve banking system is creating more debt than money, as explained above. The ever-growing amount of unpayable debt is throwing individual people as well as companies and even countries into bankruptcy. The spiral of debt can only be kept going by perpetual economic growth, unless it is undermined by hyperinflation. Environmentalists are questioning the imperative of infinite growth on a planet with finite resources. Some economists are hoping that economic growth can be decoupled from a growth in material consumption, but critics point out that a decoupling of finance from the real economy is making the system unstable. The legitimacy of the current money system is indeed challenged.

International institutions

We are relying on the United Nations to solve international problems, yet the power of the UN to reach consensus and to solve conflicts is limited. The privileged position and the veto right of a few UN members exists for historical reasons rather than for reasons of fairness. The inefficiency of the international climate negotiations is undermining the confidence in the UN. Other international organizations, such as the World Bank and the IMF are accused of being instruments of neocolonialism and exploitation.^[6]

War

Most of the wars that have been fought since WWII have been unsuccessful in bringing peace, democracy, and stability. Attempts to impose regime change on foreign countries by violent means has only created chaos, and sometimes fostered new despots to replace those that were removed. People are beginning to doubt the claims that wars are fought for the sake of freedom and democracy. They see wars as creating more problems than they solve. The legitimacy of wars as a means of solving international conflicts is called into question. A world order based on Pax Americana is seen as unfair.

Democracy

Politicians in most democratic countries are heavily influenced by industry lobbyists and by campaign sponsorship. The increasing accumulation of wealth among a few mega-rich persons and corporations has created a culture of plutocracy and crony capitalism that undermines the legitimacy of our democratic institutions. We are currently seeing a backlash in democracy. The freedom index is decreasing in more than half of the world's countries,^[7] and reports from Freedom House conclude that democracy is in crisis.^[8] This is a sign of regality, which may be explained by an increased media focus on terrorism since 2001, extreme economic inequality, and refugee crises.

Mass media

Democracy is not working well when people have limited access to reliable information sources that are independent of political and economic interests. The concentration of media ownership is jeopardizing the independence of the major news media. Fierce economic competition is forcing commercial mass media to publish whatever attracts the most readers and viewers, rather than what is relevant and true.^[5] The legitimacy of the mass media as a democratic watchdog or a fourth estate is questionable.

Internet regulation

Internet media and social media are vulnerable to clandestine manipulation, fake news, trolling, and extremist propaganda. There have been various proposals for regulating internet media, but such systems of regulation can easily be abused for suppressing unpopular political views. We have not found a system of regulation that everybody can agree is fair.

Surveillance

Surveillance of citizens is increasing because of new technological possibilities. People are very aware of historical examples of how surveillance has been used for the suppression of political dissidence. This makes them question the legitimacy of the pervasive surveillance.

Science

Large sectors of the sciences and academic institutions are heavily influenced by ideological bias or by industry sponsorship. The funding for independent basic research is declining. People are skeptical about the reliability of scientific reports.

Climate and environment

The effects of climate change and degradation of the environment are becoming more and more visible. Our current modes of production and the paradigm of economic and material growth are seen as unsustainable by a large part of the population.

 

The dynamics of empires

Peter Turchin and his colleagues have studied the rise and fall of empires through history. They have found that empires expand and grow through war. The violent conflicts at the boundary of an empire create a culture of solidarity, authoritarianism, discipline, and fighting spirit. This cultural force is called asabiya in Turchin's theory. Asabiya is basically the same as regality. This is a force that is necessary for holding an empire together. Without war, an empire will lose its inner strength and will begin to disintegrate.^[9]

Now, we may ask if the same theory can be applied to a modern superpower. Many theorists are seeing the conglomerate of the United States and its allies as a modern-day empire. Turchin's theory is based on the study of historical agrarian empires. There is no certainty that this theory can be applied to a modern superpower, because the power structures are different from past empires, and the US-centered aggregate of power has no clear boundaries. But Turchin's theory is in perfect agreement with the predictions of regality theory, which has been shown to be valid for both ancient and modern cultures.^[2]

The USA has been involved in wars throughout most of its history. If it is true that an empire will lose its strength without wars, then we may suspect that the United States are fighting wars together with their allies simply for the purpose of maintaining a position as the leading superpower in the world. This position is threatened as the US economy is declining with the recurrent economic crises, and the ability to fight wars is reduced.

What does it take for an empire to collapse? An uprising among an impoverished and dissatisfied population is not enough to overturn the rulers of an empire, according to Turchin's theory. A strong and stable government with a loyal elite can always crush a rebellion. An imperialistic government can only be overturned if it is weakened by economic problems, external pressure, and by internal conflicts among the elite. Historical empires have gone through several cycles of alternating growth and crisis through hundreds of years before they eventually fell apart.^{[9] [10]}

If we try to apply this theory to a modern superpower, we can see that the US-centered empire is in a phase of crisis. The economy is deteriorating as wealth is concentrated on very few hands, unpayable amounts of debt are accumulating, and fortunes are disappearing into tax havens. At the same time, the popular support for the seemingly senseless wars is declining, and solidarity among the political, military, and economic elite is lost. We can expect the power and influence of this superpower to decrease in the coming decades, but we are nowhere near a total collapse. The vast network of social, political, economic, academic, ideological, and military structures gives the system of power a high amount of resilience that allows it to regain much of its strength after a crisis. This analysis has been explained in more detail in a previous article.^[11]

We are likely to see repeated cycles of alternating growth and crisis through many decades before the US-centered empire will lose its status as world superpower. There will be many attempts to save a system in crisis. We can expect that US leaders and military strategists will try to fabricate dangers and perfect enemies in order to maintain regality and to strengthen nationalistic sentiments, but dissenters within the intellectual elite will try to undermine this strategy by exposing the propaganda as deception. There will be serious conflicts between those that believe this propaganda and those that don't.

China will continue to be a significant superpower. There is a marked discrepancy between the authoritarian government and the psychological sentiments of the Chinese population because regal influences in the country are few. This is the reason why I have predicted major reforms in China. The fact that these reforms have not occurred yet in China may be explained by historical theory. A strong and united elite can always suppress a rebellion.^[10] The government may be able to suppress rebellion as long as there is economic growth in the country. The expected revolution in China will not happen until the government is weakened by a severe economic crisis combined with pressure from other countries and perhaps dramatic events in Hong Kong, Tibet, and other rebellious regions.

 

Conclusion

The balance between regal and kungic influences is currently quite delicate in the world as a whole. Strong mass movements will pull the balance in the direction of more freedom and democracy, but even a single dramatic event can cause temporary shifts in an authoritarian and warlike direction, as we have seen with the terror events of September 11, 2001. On a longer timescale, we will see the world moving in a more peaceful and democratic direction, but this trend will be interrupted by temporary relapses in the authoritarian direction. More countries will go through the demographic transition and we will see falling birth rates.

The accumulation of enormous amounts of wealth on very few hands will continue until the system becomes unstable. We can predict serious economic crises in the future because of economic imbalances and accumulating debt. Such crises can have a regal effect, which will cause some countries to become less democratic. However, people nowadays tend to blame economic crises and the climate crisis on the elite. This is a kungic sign and a reason for protests. There will be no united elite to defend the status quo. Large parts of the intellectual and scientific elite will support the protesters, while an influential economic elite will try to prevent reforms in order to preserve their privileges. On a longer timescale, we will see more democracy worldwide. The world will slowly become more peaceful and democratic as people become better at resisting the propaganda and manipulation of warmakers.

The power of the USA will decrease due to economic crises and to political and ideological disagreements. Other countries will be eager to fill the power vacuum left by a weakened superpower. Russia and China will increase their influence in the world, despite temporary economic crises. Poor and developing countries will organize, and new alliances will be formed, including large countries in Asia, Africa, and South America. Such alliances will form a strong voice for change in the economic world order. The importance of religious conflicts will decline, while a dominant focus of conflict will be between rich and poor countries. New religious movements of a more syncretic and less dogmatic nature will adapt to the new situation. There will be calls for higher moral standards in business and politics, but with limited success.

We will see new perfect enemies constructed by the USA in an attempt to sustain its dwindling power. Other countries with imperial ambitions may use similar tactics. Large parts of the population are still easy to manipulate, but threats of terrorism will have less news value in the media and hence less psychological impact.

Conflict areas with foreign involvement will see important changes as the power balance in the world is shifting. This includes several Latin American countries, parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Kashmir, Palestine, and indeed most of the Middle East. Old conflicts will flare up, while other long-standing conflicts will find new solutions that were previously impossible. Korea will be reunited. New possible solutions to the Palestine conflict will come on the negotiation table, perhaps involving a one-state solution, or moved borders.

We can expect a turbulent future with many ideological battles and polarization. There will be increased protests and dissidence as the perceived legitimacy of the basic institutions and structures of our society is declining. The deficiencies of current systems and institutions will be blamed on political and economic elites. This will lead to conflicts between commoners and representatives of the political and economic system. The criticism of current institutions and structures may come from a broad spectrum of political factions in the future, while the left-wing right-wing dichotomy is becoming more blurred.

It is easier to point out the deficiencies of the current systems than to create new and better systems. Many attempts at improving the systems and institutions will only create new problems. Public debates will be characterized by many problems and few solutions. International mass movements will be fighting for change, while strong political and economic interests will be able to prevent or sabotage much of the desired change.

Manipulation through the mass media and social media will continue to be a strong factor as long as there are no big, reliable, independent and well-informed news sources to counter fake news and biased information. Information warfare will increase. We will see more fake news and fake organizations, while genuine organizations and activist movements will be infiltrated and diverted into unproductive and counterproductive activities. There will be fake terrorist propaganda on the internet, and we will see a moral panic calling for censorship of terror propaganda and extremism. Liberation movements will be targeted as terror organizations, and there will be legal battles over who should be classified as terrorists. Activists on all sides of the political spectrum will have a hard time defending their freedom of speech. Media focus on dangers and enemies will continue to be a regal influence that can delay democratic developments in many countries. On a longer timescale, we will see more peace and democracy worldwide.

 

Comments and discussion of these predictions may be posted at www.regality.info/forum

 

[1] Fog, Agner. Cultural Selection. Kluwer, 1999.

[2] Fog, Agner. Warlike and Peaceful Societies: The Interaction of Genes and Culture. Open Book Publishers, 2017.

[3] Fog, Agner. Predictions for the new millennium, January 2000.

[4] Fog, Agner. Predictions new year 2010. January 2010.

[5] Fog, Agner. The supposed and the real role of mass media in modern democracy. 2013.

[6] Hiatt, Steven W. A Game as Old as Empire: The Secret World of Economic Hit Men and the Web of Global Corruption. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2007.

[7] Vásquez, I. & Porčnik, T. The Human Freedom Index 2019. A Global Measurement of Personal, Civil, and Economic Freedom. Cato Institute, Fraser Institute, and Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, 2018.

[8] Freedom House. Democracy in Retreat. Freedom in the World, 2019.

[9] Turchin, Peter. War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires. Penguin, 2007.

[10] Goldstone, Jack A.: Comparative Historical Analysis and Knowledge Accumulation in the Study of Revolutions. In Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, edited by James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer, 41-90. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

[11] Fog, Agner. Can a collapse of current economic empires be predicted? 2014.